Week 7 Quarterbacks – Using Advanced Stats to Build a Winning FanDuel or DraftKings Lineup

Week 7 Quarterbacks – Using Advanced Stats to Build a Winning FanDuel or DraftKings Lineup

NFL Daily Fantasy

Every week I have to earn my fan bases trust.  As an fantasy football expert. I made a lot of money in daily fantasy sports for myself, but I need to help you make money playing daily fantasy football.  As someone who puts in countless hours researching, running the numbers  and thinking through each teams players and matchups, I came up with my Quarterback plays you need to consider this week to help you put together a winning FanDuel  and DraftKings lineup this week.

Quarterbacks – By The Numbers

Guys I love this week are Brady, Dalton, Bortles, Rivers, Ryan and Cousins.  Why?

Tom Brady at Steelers – $7,900 DK / $9,100 FD

I listed Brady first because this is the 3rd stop on his revenge tour(yes, sometimes you numbers don’t tell the whole story).  However, here are some numbers. Since his return Brady has averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game.  What if they are killing the Steelers?  LOL that’s a good one.  Luckily, no matter how much they are ahead by, they always keep the foot on the gas.

.Matt Ryan and the Falcons on the other hand, if they get up by to much, they may start running a lot more.  I nothing else, they may run more just to keep Rivers off the field.  Case in point, against a New Orleans Saints Matt Ryan threw only 30 times in order to keep Brees off the field.

Andy Dalton vs Browns – $6,000 DK / $8,100 FD

No one ever talks about Dalton as a top DFS play, but I like Dalton a lot this week for both cash and GPP games.  Here are some numbers to consider:

According to Football Outsiders, the Browns rank 30th in pass defense DVOA and rank 28th in yards allowed per pass attempt.

If that’s not enough, last year Dalton put up 23.9 (220 yrds, 2 TD’s and one rushing TD) and 21.86 fantasy points(234 yrds and 3 TD’s) up against the Browns last season, and guess what, the Browns have allowed three touchdown passes in four consecutive games.  Dalton makes a better DraftKings play because of the 300 yard passing bonus.

 

Kirk Cousins vs Detroit – $5,900 DK / $7,300 FD

While Cousins home/road splits last year were extremely different, this year he has made that a thing if the past.  The great matchup Cousins has this week against the Lions who rank 31st against the pass defense DVOA.  His passing NEP per pass attempt on the road this year is .22, while the league average is .13.  Those are the numbers, but here are some other things to think about.  Just last week this Lions defense allowed Case Keenum to throw for 321 yards and 3 TD’s and while the status of Desean Jackson and Jordon Reed is still up in the air, Cousins has enough weapons from Garcon, Crowder and newly found target Vernon Davis to get the job done.

Philip Rivers @Atlanta – $6,500 DK / $7,800 FD

Rivers seems to keep this team in games every week and this week should be no different.  Up until last week when he played against that Denver defense, Rivers had over 300 yards passing and 6 TD’s over the last 3 games.

This week he faces Atlanta who has one of the hottest offenses that will be a handful for the Chargers 26th ranked pass defense.   Because he should be playing from behind, Rivers will put up big numbers against a weak Falcon defense.  Even Vegas sees this as a high scoring game, with an over/under of 54.5 this week.  If that, is not enough for you, here’s another interesting fact, when the Chargers are underdogs by 6 points or more, Rivers has averaged 24.87 fantasy points per game!

Good luck in your FanDuel and DraftKings contests this week and as always let me know how you did. @lockdowncorner3

Lockdown Corner Week 14 Draftkings Daily Fantasy Football Advice

NFL Daily Fantasy

Lockdown Corner is back again with complete look at the week 14 games froma Draftkings Pricing Perspective

Editor’s note: DraftKingscom is running its last Millionaire Maker game.  Its a one-week $3 million Fantasy Football contest for Week 14. It’s only $27 to join and first prize is $1,000,000. Starts Sunday, December 7th at 1 p.m. ET. Enter now to play with us.

 

If you missed the playoffs in your seasonal league, here’s your chance to get some excitement. Just try DraftKings, and you will feel like you made the playoffs for the next four weeks.

Each week you can set a brand new lineup with any players you want based on a $50,000 salary cap, and the best part is you could get an immediate cash payout if your team is successful. It’s as much fun as a season-long league, with the best parts, drafting every week and the prizes are paid out every week.

This week, we’re looking at the $3 million Millionaire Maker tournament. It’s just $27 to enter, and the first-place prize is $1,000,000. The top 25,670 teams win money, and you can also play against me by clicking here

With that being said, lets take a look at the DraftKings pricing. I hope this Week 14 Fantasy Football Player Picks Advice helps you win some money this weekend! Shoot me any questions or comments.

Steelers @ Bengals (47)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger($8200)
His price has gone up so much that its just below the elite QBs in the NFL which makes me want to stay away from Big Ben. The Bengals pass defense has gotten better the last few weeks as well.

LeVeon Bell ($9400)
Bell has been safe bet every week, but his price is pretty high. The Bengals have gotten healthy but they can still be run on. If you can fit him in your lineup start him.  I wont be as I will find a cheaper option.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Jeremy Hill ($5400) & Giovani Bernard ($5300)
I’ll be fading these guys tis week, mainly because of the time share, but I’d prefer Hill, if I had to start one.

AJ Green ($8200)
The Steelers secondary has been beatable all year.  Dalton has targeted Green 24 times in the last two weeks and with Dalton being better at home I really like Green this week.

Continue reading

Week 13 Fanduel and Draftkings Strategy Advice: Daily Fantasy Football Player Picks

NFL Daily Fantasy

FanDuelAnother week of Daily Fantasy Football is in the book and now we at week 13 and a great day of Thanksgiving games! Thanksgiving is all about family, food, friends and FOOTBALL!  Nothing brings American families together like watching Football on Thanksgiving Day. Its also the start of the Holiday season with Black Friday shopping and sales going on and of course that brings us to Christmas.

For DFS’ers this is a great holiday.  There are so many Daily Fantasy Games on FanDuel and DraftKings geared soley to the Thursday games.  Think of the entertainment value of that, being really glued to your seat with an extra incentive to watch all the games.  I’ll spend some extra focus on the Thanksgiving games as far as targeting players because its such a special day of games.  Then I’ll cover all of the Sunday Monday games as well..

STRATEGY TIPS

Every week I analyze the upcoming games here and not only do I try to give some advice to win at your FanDuel and DraftKings games, but to look  back on the previous week’s results and learn from my loses so I can see what worked and what didn’t to help improve going forward.. My week 12 was a mixed bag as far as my results. I had another solid week on Fanduel but took a loss on Draftkings. You can’t win every week in Daily Fantasy. You just need to manage your cash flow so that you can be profitable by seasons end.  Maximizing your gains on the good weeks while minimizing your losses on down weeks. By using the proper mix of contest like, 50/50, HTH, Small GPP and Large GPP’s is the key to maintaining your cash flow.

DRAFTKINGS
DraftKings is running a promotion this week called the Thanksgiving Wishbone Tournament and they are giving a $20 voucher to enter this week.  If you don’t already have DraftKings account, you can register for you can sign up below.
You have a chance at a $100,000 first place prize!
REGISTER FOR DRAFTKINGS AND RECIEVE A $20 VOUCHER FOR THE THANKSGIVING DAY WISHBONE TOURNAMENT

THURSDAY GAMES

Since the slate this week is broken up in to two separate groupings I’m going to switch things up and deal with them separately. Keep in mind that a 3 game slate needs to be treated very differently when considering GPP versus HTH. For those playing Thursday GPP’s there is no move too obscure or risky. There simply aren’t that many viable players to choose from. Winners will generally find a player or two that you would normally never consider and have them go off for them. These contests HEAVILY favor newer player for obvious reasons.

CHI @ DET

11/27 12:30 ET At Detroit -7 Chicago 47

 

At first glance, this game looks like it will be a blow out and Vegas sees this as fairly high scoring  game. Chicago’s defense has been very poor (Packers tore them up twice).  How in the world are they going to stop Megatron?  He should be in a number of your Thursday lineups. Megatron is priced fairly low on Draftkings this week which is an extra bonus.  I also like Golden Tate and Joique Bell this week. With all the attention Megatron is going to get, Tate should be able to run free catching a ton underneath. As for Chicago, Im not feeling anyone other than Forte and if the price is to high I’ll probably fade him too this week.. Loins Defense is in play this week too!

Continue reading

Lockdown Corner Week 12 Draftkings Daily Fantasy Football Advice

NFL Daily Fantasy

DRAFTKINGS Player Advice and Cheat Sheet

DraftKings WEEK 12 FREEROLL

I did game by game breakdowns in my FanDuel Strategy Advice column, so I’m going to just highlight the players to target, their DraftKings price and my thoughts and strategy on which players you should target for your DraftKings Lineup.

 

Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons (o/u 47)

Cleveland Browns

Josh Gordon ($6300)
Everyone has Gordon fever, so I expect him to be VERY highly owned. Gordon has an amazing matchup going against the Falcons, who’ve allowed 4 TDs in the last five games to WR1s.

Andrew Hawkins ($4900)
Hawkins is the player who’s value could be effected most by the return of Josh Gordon. I don’t think the Browns throw enough for both guys to really produce, but who knows, maybe they will throw the ball now with Gordon back.  I still think he could do well with softer coverage with Gordon back.

Brian Hoyer ($5900)
Hoyer is a very interesting play this week between Gordon coming back and his price tag. He has a great matchup against a poor Atlanta defense.   I’m Stacking Hoyer and Gordon in at least one lineup this week.

Isaiah Crowell ($3800)
With the release of Ben Tate and Crowell being named the starter last week, Crowell becomes an interesting play this week for the price. Atlanta is 24th against the run and I should get the majority of the carries.

Continue reading

Week 12 Fanduel and Draftkings Strategy Advice: Daily Fantasy Football Player Picks

NFL Daily Fantasy

Week 12 of this Daily Fantasy Football season is here. Another week to try to better our strategies and see who performed and which matchups paid off for us.  That’s the beauty of DFS, it gives us weekly fantasy football opportunities. Ive used this site to provide you with the tools and techniques I’ve used not only in fantasy football and successful survivor picking, but to show you how to be profitable playing DFS

 

Its important to factor is to always keep an open mind and be open to new ideas even if it goes against contemporary thinking, after all the contrarian play tends to pay off in daily fantasy football as it does in the stock marketing. I make sure to look back on the previous week’s results and whenever possible, adjust my strategy and techniques in an effort to maximize returns whenever possible and see what ideas of mine worked and which did not.  Learning how to make your money last by playing cash games as well as GPP contests has gone a long way to keeping a nice bank roll going.

 

Looking back to week 11, I had a great FanDuel week, winning almost all of my matches with the exception a a few GPP contests with 57,500 people in it.

 

Now on to the week 12 match-ups.

Week 12 Game Breakdowns

Thursday Night

KC @ OAK (42.5) Here is another Thursday night game that doesn’t really interest me. Other than Jamal Charles being a great play against the Raiders poor run defense, I may also consider the Kansas City defense for the right price.. If we get word that the Raiders will use Latavius Murray this week, he would be a sneaky play this week.

 

Sunday Games

CLE @ ATL (47)  All the talk this week is about the return of Josh Gordon.  Im sure everyone will have him in their lineups this week, especially since Atlanta’s defense has been terrible. As far as running backs, Cleveland got us last week by switching between West and Crowell. Atlanta is easy to run on, so  I’d consider going with whoever is named the starter this week. Cleveland Defense had some more injuries again this week and they have not bee great against number tow receivers, so that puts the Atlanta Offense is in play once again. Ryan, Jones and White (good number two WR) are all good starts. The Ryan to Jones stack has not been working very well, so I may go with the Ryan to White stack as a contrarian play in GPP’s.

Continue reading

Week 11 Fanduel and Draftkings Strategy: Daily Fantasy Football Player Picks

NFL Daily Fantasy

Last week was a tough one, somehow I did really well on FanDuel with my lineups, but ending up not doing as well on DraftKings.  Between injuries to Ronnie Hillman and my Steelers guys (Rothlesberger and Brown) a few of my lineups didn’t perform as well.  I had a feeling they wouldn’t do well, so good thing I only put them in one lineup.  I had one lineup with Sanchez, Matthew, and Olsen, but lost some games to players that loaded up on Eagles vs Panthers game players such as Benjamin, Olsen, Sanchez, Matthew, and Celek

Most of my picks and calls were good from last week such as pairing up Rodgers and Nelson who torched the Chicago defense.  It appear that Rodgers and Nelson are the best stack so far this season..  They look pretty strong for the rest of this season.

THURSDAY FADE

Once again I’m fading the Thursday games and its paid off once again. In DFS games its important to maximize any advantage possible such as finding guys people are overlooking and exploiting statistical anomalies. This week players like Green, Hill, Sanu and even Dalton were over-drafted  because of their past performance and as a result scoring for the Thursday GPP’s was down significantly.

DraftKing & FanDuel Promo Codes:

FanDuel Promo Code

FanDuel is offering a 100% Deposit Bonus up to $600 for people that sign up using this link, FanDuel 100% Deposit Bonus.
DRAFTKINGS FREEROLL Promo Code

Draftkings is running a Player Appreciation Freeroll this week and its awesome! It’s FREE to enter and has $100,000 in cash prizes. $10,000 to first place.

Thursday Night

BUF @ MIAMI (42) – Im going to pass again on the Thursday night game. I will use the Miami defense in a few lineups but its the only play in this game.

Continue reading

Winning Lineup For Week 3

NFL Daily Fantasy

Weekly Fantasy Leagues: Putting Together a Winning Lineup for Week 3

Last week as a very good week that would have been better had the FanDuel website not crashed on Sunday!  Because it did, I did not get the week 2 lineup I created for you (lineup1) submitted for my entry into the FanDuel 120K Tournament.  I did however, get another line up in (lets call that lineup 2) that placed and won some money.

Lineup 1 I created for you would have come in about #35 out of 28,568ish entries or so, Not Bad!

Lineup 2 came in #1181 out of 28,568ish entries.

So I made some money, hopefully you did too.  Now let’s win some more!

This week I’m going to enter the $250K Sun NFL Rush, which has a $15,000 first prize for a mere $5 entry and the 350K Sun NFL Kickoff, which has a $30,00 first prize for a $10 entry.   What I like about the 350k Sun NFL Kickoff is that they pay out over about  6700 top entries.   After doing well and getting a little taste of success, now I’m really itching to build off of that.  Continue reading

Free Agent Finds – Week 3 Waiver Wire Pickups

Pickups Of The Week

Playing the waiver wire is one of the most important ways to have a winning fantasy football. Team, but you have to play it smart.  Each week, I’ll show you a number of players you should target in the free-agent market to help you reach your goal… winning a your Fantasy Football League Championship!

1. Knile Davis, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

After Jamaal Charles was knocked out of his Week 2 game with a high ankle sprain Knile Davis tore it up for 28 touches, 103 scrimmage yards and a pair of touchdowns.  Some people thing he looked better than Charles did before he got hurt.  Just in case Charles misses a few weeks, Davis is a guy that will get a lot of touches.

 2. Donald Brown, RB, San Diego Chargers 

A guy I drafted in one of my deeper leagues, Donald Brown was a top-25 fantasy running back in 2013.  Now it appears he is in line to get Mathews carries with  Ryan Mathews (knee) out for a few weeks. Mathews always gets hurt so it was only a matter of time.  In this case, Danny Woodhead would continue his role as a 3rd down, red zone and  change-of-pace back.

Continue reading

Free Agent Finds – Week 2 Waiver Wire Pickups

Pickups Of The Week

A crazy week one that included the Ravens releasing Ray Rice on Monday, now gives Justin Forsett  the chance to be a starting running back for Baltimore for the rest of the season. He will clearly be the most popular player on the Waiver Wires in Week 2 since he was not owned in many leagues.

Quarterbacks

Locker, QB Tennessee Titans: started off great last season before injuries ruined his year. He started off this season great again this year with 23 Fantasy points against the Chiefs in Week 1. He should stay hot again in Week 2 against the Cowboys, but he gets hit a lot and has a tough time staying healthy.

Notable Injuries: Shaun Hill (quad)

Waiver Priority list (add them in this order): Jake Locker & Ryan Tannehill,

Potential drop candidates: Alex Smith, & Eli Manning

Running backs

Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore Ravens: With all the Ray Rice drama going on and  Pierce fumbling, Forsett did a nice job as Baltimore’s lead back. I know, Forsett is undersized (5-foot-8, 197 pounds)  and may not  be a featured  back, but if he keeps producing he will keep getting the touches.  This weeks matchup is tough, but worth a waiver wire pick up if you need RB depth.

Notable Injuries: Eddie Lacy (concussion), Ben Tate (knee), Doug Martin (knee), Toby Gerhart (ankle)

Waiver Priority list (add them in this order):  Forsett, Ingram, Shonn Greene West,  James Starks, Bobby Rainey, Ahmad Bradshaw, Chris Ivory

Potential drop candidates: Rice, Devonta Freeman, Ronnie Hillman, Lance Dunbar (28 percent)

Wide receivers

Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers:  Not many people mentioned he’d be an NFL contributor right away when talking about rookie WR’s. If Week 1 is any indication, Benjamin should be a productive WR and most likely the Panthers number one receiver.  He saw eight targets and caught six of them, including a 26-yard TD he caught over a defensive back in the end zone. The fact that Benjamin did this with Derek Anderson throwing to him only adds to his worth when .Cam Newton  return in Week 2,  Get him if you need another WR.

Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns . He’s mostly a slot receiver, and at 5-7 and 180 pounds, he isn’t a rred-zone threat, but, if you’re in a deeper PPR league, Hawkins is a solid pickup and a top weapon on the Browns.

Markus Wheaton, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: Wheaton is expected to play a big role starting opposite Antonio Brown, filling the void left by Emmanuel Sanders.  In week 1 against the Browns, he had six catches for 97 yards on seven targets. His role should continue to expand as the season progresses, definitely worth picking up this week because of his upside.

Notable Injuries: Brandon Marshall (ankle), Alshon Jeffery (hamstring)

Waiver Priority list (add them in this order): Markus Wheaton, Steve Smith,  Andrew Hawkins, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Hurns, Marqise Lee, James Jones,  Malcom Floyd, Donnie Avery

Potential drop candidates:  Doug Baldwin Tavon Austin, Kenny Stills, Kenny Britt

Tight ends

Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans:  He played welling in week 1 and had a touchdown on four targets.  This weelk he’s got a favorable matchup against Dallas. The Cowboys couldn’t stop Vernon Davis in Week 1, and Walker could be in line for a good week this week.

Dwayne Allen, TE, Indianapolis Colts:  Allen made the most of his targets in week1 and Luck and the Colts will start to see his potential over the next few weeks.  

Notable Injuries: Jordan Cameron (shoulder), Jordan Reed (hamstring), Tyler Eifert (elbow)

Priority list (add them in this order): Delanie Walker , Travis Kelce, Dwayne Allen, Larry Donnell, Levine Toilolo

Potential drop candidates: Eric Ebron & Coby Fleener

Defense

Miami Dolphins DST:  Played great against Brady and the Patriots.  We stil have to see how much was talent and how much was due to the heat down in Miami.

Late Round Draft Strategies

Draft Strategy

Many people go into a draft with some basic strategy of who they plan on picking for the first few rounds. Whether they have their favorite players or like to pick RB’s first, or WR’s, etc.

Some strategies are typically based on position scarcity, perceived value and a desire to formulate a somewhat balanced team. But what happens when your half way through your draft and everyone executed their draft plan as best they can?

Most people’s draft strategies fall apart halfway through and in the second half of some drafts have no strategy or reason as to what they are going to do. Fantasy owners end up looking to fill out rosters with random guys they’ve had on their teams before, or guys from their favorite NFL team. Its these later rounds that an strewd owner can often separate himself or herself from the pack by drafting guys with upside or protecting against the chance of injuries to your starters. Im going to show you four tips that will give you the edge you need in those later rounds.

1. Take Fliers on Young/High-Upside Players

Tight end Zach Ertz should be on your late-round radar.
If you’re like most people, you are probably taking a cheat sheet to your draft with a list of players based solely on someone else’s projected fantasy points, you may end up with a bench full of veterans if you pick soley based on a player’s name.. And, while having a few veterans like Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin or DeAngelo Williams can certainly give your team some stability, it limits your teams upside. Think about this, Eddie Lacy, Zac Stacy, Andre Ellington, Alshon Jeffery,Keenan Allen, Cordarrelle Patterson, Jordan Cameron andJulius Thomas, all had breakout seasons in 2013 and most were in second half. If you’re like me and hit on atleast one of them, it likely catapolted your team to another level.
Here are a few rules for late round picks:
1. Take some chances. Especially if you’re playing in a keeper or dynasty league!
2. The whole second half of your draft should be fliers minus maybe one or two “safe” backup picks. Here are some examples of what I’m talking about:

RB: Take Carlos Hyde, Andre Williams, Terrance West and Devonta Freeman over running backs like Darren McFadden, Shonn Greene, Chris Ivory, Jonathan Stewart and Knowshon Moreno.

WR: Take Terrance Williams, Kelvin Benjamin, Sammy Watkins and Kenny Stills over wide receivers like Greg Jennings, Hakeem Nicks, and Steve Smith.

TE: Take Zach Ertz, Ladarius Green, and Dennis Pitta over tight ends like Antonio Gates, Heath Miller and Jared Cook.

Note: The one position I didn’t include here was quarterback. If you’re going to take a flier on a young/high upside quarterback who hasn’t yet established himself, make sure he’s your No. 2 or 3 quarterback and not your starter. Rookie quarterbacks rarely break out, which leads to consideration No. 2.

2. Obtain an Upper-Tier Backup Quarterback

In recent years, the quarterback position has become deeper for fantasy purposes. This year there’s a big difference between the top-tier “backup” quarterbacks and the lower-tier backups. Let me be more specific: Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers, and Andy Dalton are significantly better than Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith, and Joe Flacco . You can find wide receivers on the waiver wire throughout the course of a season, but once the draft is over, you’re basically stuck at quarterback barring a trade. If your starter goes down or is struggling like Tom Brady did last year, it could be a season-killer unless you’ve got a quality backup quarterback. Just a side note here, Dalton and Rivers were actually in the top five at the position last year in most scoring formats (8,800 yards and 65 touchdowns combined). Although coaching changes this season (Jay Gruden and Ken Whisenhunt are now head coaches elsewhere and not coordinators) have led to a drop in their respective values, having them on your team could be invaluable.

3. Draft Running Backs Who Backup Players with Health Risks

The term “handcuffing.” Gets talked about every year, so its nothing new to most fantasy football owners, but it is still a vital late-round drafting strategy with respect to one position and one position only: running back. If Calvin Johnson gets injured during the season, for example, it’s highly unlikely that his backup is going to beable to fill his shoes in such a way to put up the numbers Johnson puts up. Its much harder to replace wide receivers on NFL teams. Running backs on the other hand, if you have a good offensive line, it can make even a marginal player into a productive fantasystarter. That’s why it’s a good idea not only to handcuff, but look to draft running backs who back up injury prone guys such as Steven Jackson, Arian Foster, etc. Keeping that in mind, here are the running backs (top 25 or so) with the most and least health risk entering the 2014 season:
Level Two Risk (Running backs whose health is MOST concerning): Arian Foster, Ben Tate., DeMarco Murray, Doug Martin, Reggie Bush, C.J. Spiller, Ryan Mathews.

Level One Risk (Running backs whose health is LEAST concerning): LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles, Giovani Bernard

You should look to draft players like: Terrance West (CLE), Jonathan Grimes (HOU), Lance Dunbar (DAL), Bryce Brown(BUF), Donald Brown (SD), and Bobby Rainey (TB). All of which make really nice late-round targets, even if you don’t have the guys starting in front of them on your roster.

Suggestions, comments, or questions? E-mail me.