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Last week scores were pretty low. Teams are better and know how to show guys down, like Calvin Johnson last week. Usually the winning scores in the millionaire pools or most pools for that matter are 270-330 ish give or take. The winning score in last week’s Saturday Million was 149.66. Because of the limited selection of players to choose from, the playoffs are likely to continue to be lower scoring than the regular season contests. This means you should be okay with using some sub-optimal values in your GPP contests in order to get the right combination of high upside plays in your lineup.
Case in point I used the cheapest kicker and the Indy defense last week to work Calvin Johnson and Antonio Brown into the same lineup. Carolina was the heavy favorite defense last week and scored 11 points where as Indy scored 9 and I save $500. I always talk about determining player value by calculating their cost per point scored. In this case I saved $500 and only gave up 2 points in the process.
With the limited slate of games, the best way to stack may be to stack entire teams. Winning teams’ passing and rushing stats are higher than losing teams, so you can base your lineups around, say, a Rodgers-Lacy-Nelson or a Manning-Anderson-Thomas stack.
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Now lets get into player values based on both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing this week. FanDuel as always, has a very sharp pricing structure, forcing you to find value plays such as a Cole Beasley or Dan Herron. This is why I will comment on FanDuel and Draftings pricing not to mention DraftKings offers a higher PPR scoring, so I will mention players you can use to tak advantage of this.
**Editors Note: The first Salary is FanDuel and the second is DraftKings pricing.
QB Andrew Luck @ DEN $9,600 – $8,700
The popular choices seem to be Aaron Rodgers this week, but I believe Luck, who throws all the time as it is, offers the highest floor along with Brady. I would love Rodgers more,. But my only problem is Rodgers has added risk because his calf may not be 100 percent healthy. In the event the Packers have to bring Flynn in, Nelson and Cobb’s value will take a hit but are still good..
Luck had a great game against the Broncos earlier this year and the Broncos allow 20 percent more total touchdowns to quarterbacks than the league average. Rodgers at home has been amazing. He has over 9 fpts more at home than on the road.
QB: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay vs Dallas, $9.700 – $8900
Of the high-priced quarterbacks, I’m love Rodgers and Andrew Luck. They’re similarly priced and I’d lick to stack him with Nelson. But that Calf worries me, Luck might be the guy because he throws a lot but Im not sure what to think of Hilton this week so I would probably not stack him and Luck. I may use Moncrief as a sleeper in GPP games..
The way Vegas sees both the Green Bay and Indianapolis games, I don’t think you’re going to go wrong with either Luck or Rodgers, but I like Brady as sneaker play. I don’t think many players will draft Brady and I think he will tear that weak Baltimore secondary apart
QB: Tom Brady, New England vs Baltimore, $9,100 – $7800 – My Sneakier Play
Brady isn’t really a low-priced quarterback, but for the $600 saving on FanDuel and the $1100 saving on DraftKings pricing over Arron Rodgers ($9700 & $8900 respectively) I love Brady’s player value based on the expected production. This will allow me to make up any point differential between lets say him and Rodgers or Luck by using that extra money on better receivers.