Week 7 Quarterbacks – Using Advanced Stats to Build a Winning FanDuel or DraftKings Lineup

Week 7 Quarterbacks – Using Advanced Stats to Build a Winning FanDuel or DraftKings Lineup

NFL Daily Fantasy

Every week I have to earn my fan bases trust.  As an fantasy football expert. I made a lot of money in daily fantasy sports for myself, but I need to help you make money playing daily fantasy football.  As someone who puts in countless hours researching, running the numbers  and thinking through each teams players and matchups, I came up with my Quarterback plays you need to consider this week to help you put together a winning FanDuel  and DraftKings lineup this week.

Quarterbacks – By The Numbers

Guys I love this week are Brady, Dalton, Bortles, Rivers, Ryan and Cousins.  Why?

Tom Brady at Steelers – $7,900 DK / $9,100 FD

I listed Brady first because this is the 3rd stop on his revenge tour(yes, sometimes you numbers don’t tell the whole story).  However, here are some numbers. Since his return Brady has averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game.  What if they are killing the Steelers?  LOL that’s a good one.  Luckily, no matter how much they are ahead by, they always keep the foot on the gas.

.Matt Ryan and the Falcons on the other hand, if they get up by to much, they may start running a lot more.  I nothing else, they may run more just to keep Rivers off the field.  Case in point, against a New Orleans Saints Matt Ryan threw only 30 times in order to keep Brees off the field.

Andy Dalton vs Browns – $6,000 DK / $8,100 FD

No one ever talks about Dalton as a top DFS play, but I like Dalton a lot this week for both cash and GPP games.  Here are some numbers to consider:

According to Football Outsiders, the Browns rank 30th in pass defense DVOA and rank 28th in yards allowed per pass attempt.

If that’s not enough, last year Dalton put up 23.9 (220 yrds, 2 TD’s and one rushing TD) and 21.86 fantasy points(234 yrds and 3 TD’s) up against the Browns last season, and guess what, the Browns have allowed three touchdown passes in four consecutive games.  Dalton makes a better DraftKings play because of the 300 yard passing bonus.

 

Kirk Cousins vs Detroit – $5,900 DK / $7,300 FD

While Cousins home/road splits last year were extremely different, this year he has made that a thing if the past.  The great matchup Cousins has this week against the Lions who rank 31st against the pass defense DVOA.  His passing NEP per pass attempt on the road this year is .22, while the league average is .13.  Those are the numbers, but here are some other things to think about.  Just last week this Lions defense allowed Case Keenum to throw for 321 yards and 3 TD’s and while the status of Desean Jackson and Jordon Reed is still up in the air, Cousins has enough weapons from Garcon, Crowder and newly found target Vernon Davis to get the job done.

Philip Rivers @Atlanta – $6,500 DK / $7,800 FD

Rivers seems to keep this team in games every week and this week should be no different.  Up until last week when he played against that Denver defense, Rivers had over 300 yards passing and 6 TD’s over the last 3 games.

This week he faces Atlanta who has one of the hottest offenses that will be a handful for the Chargers 26th ranked pass defense.   Because he should be playing from behind, Rivers will put up big numbers against a weak Falcon defense.  Even Vegas sees this as a high scoring game, with an over/under of 54.5 this week.  If that, is not enough for you, here’s another interesting fact, when the Chargers are underdogs by 6 points or more, Rivers has averaged 24.87 fantasy points per game!

Good luck in your FanDuel and DraftKings contests this week and as always let me know how you did. @lockdowncorner3

Week 6 Player Picks for FanDuel and DrafKings DFS

Fantasy Football

Welcome back for another week of Lock Down Corner’s DFS strategy advice. Last week was another good week for our lineups, hopefully yours were just as good!  Thanks for those who like the Salary Cap Crusher data we have been providing.  If you havent done so yet, definitely check it out.

Become a Lock Down Corner member and get access to the Salary Cap Crusher and our all of our articles and DFS lineup picks the minute they come out so you CAN GET THE EDGE in your DFS games.

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Here’s how last weeks line up did on both DraftKings were we scored 200 and FanDuel 162 fantasy points.

Winning DraftKings Lineup

 

Daily Fantasy football contests are now available. Yahoo Sports is starting things off with a $1 Million Kickoff contest. For a $10 entry fee, players can win up to $100,000 for first place.

Lets take a look a a few games I really love this week:

Atlanta at New Orleans – Atlanta has been playing very well as of late, but with Jones on a pitch count and Hankerson iffy, the only guy I like this week is Freeman.  Freeman has been putting up big time numbers.  For the salary and the extra touches Im expecting him to get, he makes a great play this week.

Denver at Cleveland – Everybody seems to run on the Browns, but with Joe Haden out, I think Demarious Thomas’ stock will go up.   I like DT, Sanders and C.J. Anderson this week.  Anderson got most of the touches last week, so I would expect that trend to continue. Denvers defense is in play this week as well.

Houston at Jacksonville –  This game has many guys that have been putting up nice fantasy numbers, so you would think it would be a higher scoring game,  For the Texans I like Hopkins, Hoyer and Foster.  Hopkins gets double digit targets and fantasy numbers every week. Hoyer, who has also put up nice fantasy number and even had a decent number of attempts with Foster in there against a Jaguars defense that gives up a lot of fantasy points to offenses and Arian Foster who can run all over the Jags and even catches double digit passes out of the backfield which really helps if you play PPR leagues like DraftKings.  For Jacksonville, I like Robinson and Hurns this week.  Both have been seeing a lot of targets and putting up double digit fantasy numbers the last few weeks and last week the Texans defense got torched by Matt Haselbeck.

Redskins at New York Jets –  The Jets have been playing really well.  The Redskins will probably see a heavy dose of Ivory this week, but with their beat up secondary, I would expect Marshall and Decker to have a pretty good day too.  The Redskins will be without DeSaun Jackson and I would expect Pierre Garcon to be covered by Revis, so I would expect the Jets defense to do very well especially at their price point on FanDuel and DraftKings $3100. Oh BTW the Redskins give up the most fantasy points to opposing defense.

New England at Indianapolis  –I generally try to avoid jumping on players everyone will be all over, but in this case Ill bet the Patriots are going to come out firing, and keep their foot on the gas!   Start Tom Brady, New England (Draftkings $8100), Gronk, Edelman and Lewis.

New York Giants at Philadelphia  –  I think this one may be a high scoring game since both defenses cant seem to stop anyone.  Last week  Kaepernick threw all over the Giants and this week should be no different with Prince being out.  Bradford is starting to put things together so Im expecting him and Eli to be in a shootout.  Bradfords price on both DraftKings and FanDuel is great for a GPP play.  I like Jordan Mathews for both cash games on GPP’s.

For the Giants, I like Eli for both cash and GPP, but for a sneaky GPP play, I likeLarry Donnell, $2900 on DraftKings, and Harris even if Beckham and Randle suit up for the Giants. If by some chance one or both are out, I love them.

Week 15 Fanduel and Draftkings Strategy Advice: Daily Fantasy Football Player Picks

NFL Daily Fantasy

Thursday Night Game

12/11 8:25 ET At St. Louis -3 Arizona 40.5

Vegas sees this as a low scoring game which is not good for fantasy football.  Im probably going to fade this game all together other than the St.Louis defense,  that has been killing it the last few weeks.  This week they are going for a potential

shutout 3 weeks in a row.

Sunday Ganes

12/14 1:00 ET At Kansas City -10.5 Oakland 41.5

Another game Vegas sees as low scoring, but they do see it as a Kansas City blow out.  For the Chiefs, I love Charles this week, but he is still questionable after injuring his knee last week.  If that’s the case Knile Davis should be a STEAL!  For the price, I like the Kansas City defense as well.  They play really well at home, so they should have a better showing this time around.  The only Raider I would consider as a good punt play is Lataveous Murray.

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Lockdown Corner Week 14 Draftkings Daily Fantasy Football Advice

NFL Daily Fantasy

Lockdown Corner is back again with complete look at the week 14 games froma Draftkings Pricing Perspective

Editor’s note: DraftKingscom is running its last Millionaire Maker game.  Its a one-week $3 million Fantasy Football contest for Week 14. It’s only $27 to join and first prize is $1,000,000. Starts Sunday, December 7th at 1 p.m. ET. Enter now to play with us.

 

If you missed the playoffs in your seasonal league, here’s your chance to get some excitement. Just try DraftKings, and you will feel like you made the playoffs for the next four weeks.

Each week you can set a brand new lineup with any players you want based on a $50,000 salary cap, and the best part is you could get an immediate cash payout if your team is successful. It’s as much fun as a season-long league, with the best parts, drafting every week and the prizes are paid out every week.

This week, we’re looking at the $3 million Millionaire Maker tournament. It’s just $27 to enter, and the first-place prize is $1,000,000. The top 25,670 teams win money, and you can also play against me by clicking here

With that being said, lets take a look at the DraftKings pricing. I hope this Week 14 Fantasy Football Player Picks Advice helps you win some money this weekend! Shoot me any questions or comments.

Steelers @ Bengals (47)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger($8200)
His price has gone up so much that its just below the elite QBs in the NFL which makes me want to stay away from Big Ben. The Bengals pass defense has gotten better the last few weeks as well.

LeVeon Bell ($9400)
Bell has been safe bet every week, but his price is pretty high. The Bengals have gotten healthy but they can still be run on. If you can fit him in your lineup start him.  I wont be as I will find a cheaper option.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Jeremy Hill ($5400) & Giovani Bernard ($5300)
I’ll be fading these guys tis week, mainly because of the time share, but I’d prefer Hill, if I had to start one.

AJ Green ($8200)
The Steelers secondary has been beatable all year.  Dalton has targeted Green 24 times in the last two weeks and with Dalton being better at home I really like Green this week.

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Week 13 Fanduel and Draftkings Strategy Advice: Daily Fantasy Football Player Picks

NFL Daily Fantasy

FanDuelAnother week of Daily Fantasy Football is in the book and now we at week 13 and a great day of Thanksgiving games! Thanksgiving is all about family, food, friends and FOOTBALL!  Nothing brings American families together like watching Football on Thanksgiving Day. Its also the start of the Holiday season with Black Friday shopping and sales going on and of course that brings us to Christmas.

For DFS’ers this is a great holiday.  There are so many Daily Fantasy Games on FanDuel and DraftKings geared soley to the Thursday games.  Think of the entertainment value of that, being really glued to your seat with an extra incentive to watch all the games.  I’ll spend some extra focus on the Thanksgiving games as far as targeting players because its such a special day of games.  Then I’ll cover all of the Sunday Monday games as well..

STRATEGY TIPS

Every week I analyze the upcoming games here and not only do I try to give some advice to win at your FanDuel and DraftKings games, but to look  back on the previous week’s results and learn from my loses so I can see what worked and what didn’t to help improve going forward.. My week 12 was a mixed bag as far as my results. I had another solid week on Fanduel but took a loss on Draftkings. You can’t win every week in Daily Fantasy. You just need to manage your cash flow so that you can be profitable by seasons end.  Maximizing your gains on the good weeks while minimizing your losses on down weeks. By using the proper mix of contest like, 50/50, HTH, Small GPP and Large GPP’s is the key to maintaining your cash flow.

DRAFTKINGS
DraftKings is running a promotion this week called the Thanksgiving Wishbone Tournament and they are giving a $20 voucher to enter this week.  If you don’t already have DraftKings account, you can register for you can sign up below.
You have a chance at a $100,000 first place prize!
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THURSDAY GAMES

Since the slate this week is broken up in to two separate groupings I’m going to switch things up and deal with them separately. Keep in mind that a 3 game slate needs to be treated very differently when considering GPP versus HTH. For those playing Thursday GPP’s there is no move too obscure or risky. There simply aren’t that many viable players to choose from. Winners will generally find a player or two that you would normally never consider and have them go off for them. These contests HEAVILY favor newer player for obvious reasons.

CHI @ DET

11/27 12:30 ET At Detroit -7 Chicago 47

 

At first glance, this game looks like it will be a blow out and Vegas sees this as fairly high scoring  game. Chicago’s defense has been very poor (Packers tore them up twice).  How in the world are they going to stop Megatron?  He should be in a number of your Thursday lineups. Megatron is priced fairly low on Draftkings this week which is an extra bonus.  I also like Golden Tate and Joique Bell this week. With all the attention Megatron is going to get, Tate should be able to run free catching a ton underneath. As for Chicago, Im not feeling anyone other than Forte and if the price is to high I’ll probably fade him too this week.. Loins Defense is in play this week too!

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Lockdown Corner Week 12 Draftkings Daily Fantasy Football Advice

NFL Daily Fantasy

DRAFTKINGS Player Advice and Cheat Sheet

DraftKings WEEK 12 FREEROLL

I did game by game breakdowns in my FanDuel Strategy Advice column, so I’m going to just highlight the players to target, their DraftKings price and my thoughts and strategy on which players you should target for your DraftKings Lineup.

 

Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons (o/u 47)

Cleveland Browns

Josh Gordon ($6300)
Everyone has Gordon fever, so I expect him to be VERY highly owned. Gordon has an amazing matchup going against the Falcons, who’ve allowed 4 TDs in the last five games to WR1s.

Andrew Hawkins ($4900)
Hawkins is the player who’s value could be effected most by the return of Josh Gordon. I don’t think the Browns throw enough for both guys to really produce, but who knows, maybe they will throw the ball now with Gordon back.  I still think he could do well with softer coverage with Gordon back.

Brian Hoyer ($5900)
Hoyer is a very interesting play this week between Gordon coming back and his price tag. He has a great matchup against a poor Atlanta defense.   I’m Stacking Hoyer and Gordon in at least one lineup this week.

Isaiah Crowell ($3800)
With the release of Ben Tate and Crowell being named the starter last week, Crowell becomes an interesting play this week for the price. Atlanta is 24th against the run and I should get the majority of the carries.

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Week 12 Fanduel and Draftkings Strategy Advice: Daily Fantasy Football Player Picks

NFL Daily Fantasy

Week 12 of this Daily Fantasy Football season is here. Another week to try to better our strategies and see who performed and which matchups paid off for us.  That’s the beauty of DFS, it gives us weekly fantasy football opportunities. Ive used this site to provide you with the tools and techniques I’ve used not only in fantasy football and successful survivor picking, but to show you how to be profitable playing DFS

 

Its important to factor is to always keep an open mind and be open to new ideas even if it goes against contemporary thinking, after all the contrarian play tends to pay off in daily fantasy football as it does in the stock marketing. I make sure to look back on the previous week’s results and whenever possible, adjust my strategy and techniques in an effort to maximize returns whenever possible and see what ideas of mine worked and which did not.  Learning how to make your money last by playing cash games as well as GPP contests has gone a long way to keeping a nice bank roll going.

 

Looking back to week 11, I had a great FanDuel week, winning almost all of my matches with the exception a a few GPP contests with 57,500 people in it.

 

Now on to the week 12 match-ups.

Week 12 Game Breakdowns

Thursday Night

KC @ OAK (42.5) Here is another Thursday night game that doesn’t really interest me. Other than Jamal Charles being a great play against the Raiders poor run defense, I may also consider the Kansas City defense for the right price.. If we get word that the Raiders will use Latavius Murray this week, he would be a sneaky play this week.

 

Sunday Games

CLE @ ATL (47)  All the talk this week is about the return of Josh Gordon.  Im sure everyone will have him in their lineups this week, especially since Atlanta’s defense has been terrible. As far as running backs, Cleveland got us last week by switching between West and Crowell. Atlanta is easy to run on, so  I’d consider going with whoever is named the starter this week. Cleveland Defense had some more injuries again this week and they have not bee great against number tow receivers, so that puts the Atlanta Offense is in play once again. Ryan, Jones and White (good number two WR) are all good starts. The Ryan to Jones stack has not been working very well, so I may go with the Ryan to White stack as a contrarian play in GPP’s.

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Week 8 Fanduel and Draftkings Strategy: Daily Fantasy Football Player Picks

NFL Daily Fantasy

Welcome back to another exciting week of Daily Fantasy Sports  action. Every week of the season brings a different set of challenges faced by fantasy owners from injuries to matchups.  I want to get into each matchup game by game and let you know which guys are in play this week.  Then we can see who you should target to make your lineups this week in both FanDuel and Draftkings.  I’ll let you know who the value plays are this week and who you should avoid in your weekly fantasy games. If your not signed up yet, go over there and get started with a deposit match bonus.

Week 8 Game By Game Break Down

Thursday Night Game

SD @ DEN 
– Last year these two teams split, but if the Chargers want to win this one up in Denver, they are going to have to run the ball effectively to keep Peyton off the field. Now with Denver’s improved defense that may be a little harder to do.. The Broncos are a big favorite with a high O/U.  Starting options are Peyton, Sanders, The Thomas brother’s (D & JThomas) and Ronnie Hillman for this game. For the Chargers Allen, Oliver, Gates, Floyd, and maybe, maybe Royal.

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