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Week 15 Recap: Best Fantasy Player Values
Finding the Best Fantasy Value: Player Cost (Dollar Value) Per Point of Production
First of I want to brag a bit and show off one of my lineups this week. I scored 192.68 points and came in 115th place out of 57,500 entries. To put things in perspective so you can see how close to winning and moving up from 115th to 10 place, I was 12 points away from 10th place and about 29 points away from taking 1st place!
I have been talking a while about ways to make money playing Daily Fantasy Football on websites like FanDuel and DraftKings, showing you some strategies the pros use to consistently make money and keep their cash flow growing. One of the topics I spoke about was calculating player value, after all, how do you know if a player is a good value or not other than guessing? In this example, Im going to use my DraftKings lineup. All the pricing below is based on the DraftKings pricing model. FanDuel is generally higher priced, so you know player cost per point will be much higher.
This week on my Player Value based on Cost per points I want to talk about three players I recommended: Derek Anderson, Marquess Wilson, and Harry Douglas.
Based on my projections, I calculated my value plays as follow:
Derek Anderson: $5,000 / 15 = $333 PPS(per point scored)
Marquess Wilson: $3000/12 = $250 PPS (I was looking for 10-15pts)
Harry Douglas: $4,200/15 =$280 PPS( Looking for 15-20)
To put that in perspective, someone like Peyton Manning, who’s salary was $8,900 would have to put up 30 fantasy points to be a better value than Derek Anderson.
Peyton Manning $8,900/30 = $296.67 cost per point
So to see the real value here, by going with Derek Anderson you would save $3,900 to use towards other players on your roster like running backs or wide receivers. That is a HUGE savings!!!
Even if Peyton got 30 points and Anderson scored 15 fantasy points, you can make up those points by selecting better players with more upside at other positions. This week Peyton only scored 13 fpts and Anderson scored 16!
After looking at how they performed production costs were even better:
Derek Anderson: $5,000 / 16 = $312.50 PPS
Marquess Wilson: $3000/10.6 = $283 PPS
Harry Douglas: $4,200/26.1 =$160.91 PPS! Wow, that is an amazing price!
Again, in comparison to Peyton Manning $8,900/13 =$684.62 Cost per Point Scored. That is a terrible investment. This is exactly the reason we look for guys with upside and a high floor.
Another guy I used in lineups was Odell Beckham Jr. who cost $8,400 which was fair considering his production.
Beckhan $8,400/30 (my projected points) = $280 per point scored. Beckhams upside has been great. I figured him to be at least a 25-30 point guy based on his previous performances with upside to 40+.
Actual productions was 46.1! That really made him a great value
Beckham $8,400/46.1 = $182.21 per point scored
If you are interested in the player value data I compile every week let me know by leaving me a comment or reach out to me on my Google+ page.