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FanDuel & DraftKings Divisional Round Top Player Values
Last week scores were pretty low. Teams are better and know how to show guys down, like Calvin Johnson last week. Usually the winning scores in the millionaire pools or most pools for that matter are 270-330 ish give or take. The winning score in last week’s Saturday Million was 149.66. Because of the limited selection of players to choose from, the playoffs are likely to continue to be lower scoring than the regular season contests. This means you should be okay with using some sub-optimal values in your GPP contests in order to get the right combination of high upside plays in your lineup.
Case in point I used the cheapest kicker and the Indy defense last week to work Calvin Johnson and Antonio Brown into the same lineup. Carolina was the heavy favorite defense last week and scored 11 points where as Indy scored 9 and I save $500. I always talk about determining player value by calculating their cost per point scored. In this case I saved $500 and only gave up 2 points in the process.
With the limited slate of games, the best way to stack may be to stack entire teams. Winning teams’ passing and rushing stats are higher than losing teams, so you can base your lineups around, say, a Rodgers-Lacy-Nelson or a Manning-Anderson-Thomas stack.
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Now lets get into player values based on both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing this week. FanDuel as always, has a very sharp pricing structure, forcing you to find value plays such as a Cole Beasley or Dan Herron. This is why I will comment on FanDuel and Draftings pricing not to mention DraftKings offers a higher PPR scoring, so I will mention players you can use to tak advantage of this.
**Editors Note: The first Salary is FanDuel and the second is DraftKings pricing.
QB Andrew Luck @ DEN $9,600 – $8,700
The popular choices seem to be Aaron Rodgers this week, but I believe Luck, who throws all the time as it is, offers the highest floor along with Brady. I would love Rodgers more,. But my only problem is Rodgers has added risk because his calf may not be 100 percent healthy. In the event the Packers have to bring Flynn in, Nelson and Cobb’s value will take a hit but are still good..
Luck had a great game against the Broncos earlier this year and the Broncos allow 20 percent more total touchdowns to quarterbacks than the league average. Rodgers at home has been amazing. He has over 9 fpts more at home than on the road.
QB: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay vs Dallas, $9.700 – $8900
Of the high-priced quarterbacks, I’m love Rodgers and Andrew Luck. They’re similarly priced and I’d lick to stack him with Nelson. But that Calf worries me, Luck might be the guy because he throws a lot but Im not sure what to think of Hilton this week so I would probably not stack him and Luck. I may use Moncrief as a sleeper in GPP games..
The way Vegas sees both the Green Bay and Indianapolis games, I don’t think you’re going to go wrong with either Luck or Rodgers, but I like Brady as sneaker play. I don’t think many players will draft Brady and I think he will tear that weak Baltimore secondary apart
QB: Tom Brady, New England vs Baltimore, $9,100 – $7800 – My Sneakier Play
Brady isn’t really a low-priced quarterback, but for the $600 saving on FanDuel and the $1100 saving on DraftKings pricing over Arron Rodgers ($9700 & $8900 respectively) I love Brady’s player value based on the expected production. This will allow me to make up any point differential between lets say him and Rodgers or Luck by using that extra money on better receivers.
Facing the league’s top run defense but one of the worst pass defenses, there’s a good chance the Pats exploit this matchup and will come out throwing. Making Edleman, Gronk and LaFell all good choices this week.
C.J Anderson, Denver vs Indianapolis $8700 – $7600
Anderson has been putting up some great fantasy numbers this season. This week he has a great matchup against a weak Indianapolis run defense. The way the Broncos have been running it lately, I think Anderson is in for a big day and should get at least one TD.
Eddie Lacy Green Bay vs Dallas $8400 – $7200
Lacy has been running hard lately, especially at home, catching more passes as well. The Dallas defense has been playing well, but can be beat and this week they will have to focus on stopping Rodgers, Nelson and Cobb. I think that will open up some holes for Lacy as well as if Rodgers goes down with a calf injury, the Packers may lean on the run a bit more.
Demarco Murray Dallas vs Green Bay $8900 – $8400
Murray’s price is pretty high on both FanDuel and DraftKings, so it makes him a little harder to work into your lineup, more so on DraftKings since their salary cap is lower and the salary difference between the two sites is pretty small. I will work him in to a GPP lineup since I will have to add a few value piays in there to be able to afford Murray.
Dan Herron Indianapolis vs Denver $6100 – $5300
Herron killed it last week getting 29 fantasy points on DraftKings last week for $4700 and 23 fantasy points on FanDuel for $5400.
This was my Lockdown Corner value player of the week on our Lockdown Corner Player Value Chart.
When I determine Player Value, I do it on projected points and afterwards we can calculate the actual cost per point scored.
FanDuel: $5400/23 = $234.78 per point scored
DraftKings: $4700/29 = $162 per point scored
That is great value! To put that in perspective Jermey Hill scored 10.7 fpts with a FanDuel salary of $7400. That comes out to you paying a cost per point scored of $691.59! That’s horrible.
Click here to learn more about my player value picks or the Lockdown Corner Player Value Sheet
Herron has a fumbling issue which may lead to Luck and the Colts throwing more, but his pricing is very good once again and he is all they have in the running game right now so he makes a great low cost RB option that also gets a majority of the touches.
Jordy Nelson, Green Bay vs Dallas $9000 – $8300
Probably my favorite wide receiver this week along with Edelman. The reason Im not totally on board the Dez train is because it seems like some teams are able to take him out of the game forcing Romo to throw to Beasley and Williams.
Randle Cobb, Green Bay vs Dallas $8600 – $7300
If the Cowboys take Nelson away, Cobb and Adams should be the beneficiaries. I like Cobb as a lower cost alternative to Nelson this week.
Julian Edelman, New England vs Baltimore $7300 – $6400
Next to Nelson, I like Edelman a lot this week. He is a little pricey on FanDuel, $7400 but compared to the limited choices available, his pricing is actually pretty good. FanDuel is know to have very sharp pricing.
Cole Beasley, Dallas vs Green Bay $5300 – $3900
Beasley has been my deep value sleeper for the last few weeks, and yet again provides a low cost option that scores points to work into your lineup. Having your value picks produce for you allows you to stack your team with other higher priced players. Im looking for at least 10 points for Beasley again this week.
Demaryius Thomas Denver vs Indianapolis $9600 – $8500
I dont know which Peyton Manning will show up, but i would expect the Broncos to throw enough to product fantasy points for Thomas. Im sure they will exploit the weak Colts Run Defense quite a bit, but that should open up things for the pass. Thomas’s price is very high amking him hard to work into lineups without taking chances on lower cost players which may or may not produce. My other concern is, will Thomas score enough points to warrant paying up for that salary? I would need about 25-30 points minimum, do you think he will get it?
Rob Gronkowski New England vs Baltimore $7600 – $7100
Gronk is a a must start every week, but in the playoffs I wonder if teams will be able to take him away and force the Pats to throw to Edelman and LaFell. That makes me think of Tim Wright as a very sneaky play in GPP games. I do expect a big game from Gronk regardless and he does have a high floor. Expect minimum 13-15 fpts but I could see more like 25+
Tim Wright, New England vs Baltimore $4600 – $3000
Owen Daniels Baltimore vs New England $5100 – $3600
*Attention – Lockdown Corner Sleeper of the week!
The Patriots have be vulnerable to the TE this season as well as the RB position. Look for the Ravens to target Daniels as we would expect both Smiths to be covered well by Revis and Browner this week. Daniels has been seeing some consistent targets and put up some fantasy points against the Steelers last week.