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Conference Week Wide Receivers and Tight Ends to Target
Top Fantasy Opportunities Based on Divisional Week
Like every week, if you want to win money from your FanDuel or DraftKings daily fantasy football contests, you need to look at the numbers to tell you the whole story; Otherwise you are just guessing.
Over the course of the season I’ve talked about standard deviation and coefficient of variation, but this today I want to focus on different metric you should be using to create your winning daily fantasy football lineups.
This week since the slate of games is getting smaller as is the player pool, I wanted to take a look at which players are getting the most opportunities (targets) to score points.
After compiling some stats, it’s clear that Julian Edelman and Larry Fitzgerald are seeing the bulk of the targets last week. This is evident by their prices on FanDuel and DraftKings this week as well, so most DFS players will be on these two players. It will be hard to work both of these guys in your lineup this week especially if you want to include one or two of the top RB’s this week. That’s why we need to use this data to help us find our 2nd and/or 3rd receiver this week.
Deciding between Edelman and Fitzgerald can be tough, but Fitzgerald did see more yards per reception (even without his 75 yard catch) and better redzone opportunities. One meant for him bounced off of someone to his teammate Michael Floyd.
Wide Receiver Targets from Divisional Playoff Week
Looking further down the list Brown, Thomas, sanders and Floyd saw quality targets, but only Sanders and Brown saw over 80 yards receiving. Sanders is $6,300 DK/$7,400FD while Brown is $5,200 DK/$6,500 FD. That’s about a $1,000 savings on both sites for a WR in Brown that sees more redzone targets and shots down the field.
What about Floyd instead of Brown?
Well, for starters Floyd didn’t get the yardage last week, but happened to get 2 touchdowns, even thou one wasn’t meant for him. My other issue is that he will probably see quite a bit of Josh Norman this week on the perimeter. Im sure Brown will too since he lines up outside as well as in the slot, but Norman does not shadow receivers in the slot. That is another reason I love Larry Fitz this week.
Besides these factors, both Brown and Floyd are about the same price on DraftKings, but on FanDuel Brown is actually $1000 cheaper!
Deeper WR Options for GPP Contests
In order to stack out lineups a bit we need to find some low cost options that have a shot to put up some points.
I like guys like Ginn, Amendola, Martin and Cotchery as GPP targets this week. Ginn had a few weeks where he caught some bombs and put up big numbers. Amendola is capable, but Edelman, Gronk and Martin seem to be capping his up side so many on DraftKings for that full point PPR. Martin I like because Brady used him instead of LaFell on the outside and when Edelman was out a few weeks. I love his price point of $2,600 on DraftKings this week. Last week you can see he was targeted 4 times, catching 2 of them for 57 yards. That’s 7.7 fantasy points on DraftKings even at this weeks price of $2,600 that is pretty good!
Cotchery is about the same price as Martin on both FanDuel and DraftKing, and does see some red zone opportunities even though he may not have last week.
Tight End Targets from Divisional Playoff Week
The same can be said about Tight Ends this week. Gronkowski and Olsen being the big two receiving tight ends,, but at drastically different prices on FanDuel. Gronkowski has a salary of $8.900 while Olsen is only $7,000. That’s a $1,900 salary cost saving for a tight end that did almost as well last week. I know Gronk is always a threat to have a big play and sees a lot of redzone targets, but looking back over the year, Olsen actually saw 21 redzone targets and Gronkowski 20.
Their DraftKings pricing is very different. Both players are almost the same price, so it will come down to what you need to make you best lineup happen. Gronk is $7,600 while Olsen is $7,100 on Draftkings this week.
The drop off at tight end after those to is huge so unless you are using one of the deeper tight ends for GPP I wouldn’t consider them for cash games. If you did roster one of them you could stack your lineup with RD’s and WR’s this week.
Hopefully this gives you some more insight into different advance metrics DFS players use to find and target players with upside potential, consistency and opportunities.